A White House report said that job growth will increase in the following months - alas- but also that unployment will be slow to decline and may even rise because of labor market growth and the return of more discouraged workers to the labor force.
Okay, now I'm a little confused. How does labor market growth affect the rise of unployment???
The following is a tid-bit from Job growth may not curb unemployment rate: WHouse
"The White House forecast, most of which was previously released with budget documents, calls for growth in gross domestic product of around 3.0 percent in 2010 and an average unemployment rate of 10.0 percent.
Because projected GDP growth is only slightly stronger than potential growth, relatively little decline is projected in the unemployment rate during 2010," the report prepared by the president's Council of Economic Advisors said.
Indeed, it is possible that the rate will rise for a while as some discouraged workers return to the labor force, before starting to generally decline. Consistent with this, employment growth is projected to be roughly equal to normal trend growth of about 100,000 per month.
The report projects more robust job growth by 2011, averaging a gain of 190,000 per month, to bring the average unemployment rate down to 9.2 percent for the year.
The report said that because of a huge economic stimulus and other measures, the economy is on a growth track again.
Our economy is growing again, and the growth over the last three months was the strongest in six years. But while economic growth is important, it means nothing to somebody who has lost a job and can't find another. For Americans looking for work, a good job is the only good news that matters."
"In other words, in order to create jobs and raise incomes for the middle class over the long run, we need to export more and borrow less from around the world, and we need to save more money and take on less debt here at home."
-- President Obama
THE BEAUTIFUL DEPRESSION
Our generation has had no Great War, no Great Depression. Our war is spiritual. Our depression is our lives.
Our generation has had no Great War, no Great Depression. Our war is spiritual. Our depression is our lives.
"Quote of the Day"
"There is no thousand-page bill that doesn't stink after a couple of months."
--Noam Scheiber
--Noam Scheiber
Thursday, February 11, 2010
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A little enlightenment on the rising unemployment rate (and labor market growth):
ReplyDeleteRemember that they are always touting the U3 unemployment rate, not the U6 which is much higher. So you really have a lot of underemployed (ie, working part time) that could go into full time employment, but were never included in the U3 rate. In fact the U3 rate is 9.7%, and the U6 is about 16%, which means that there are around 9,500,000 people underemployed (but employed, nonetheless). Theoretically, if all new jobs are filled by these people, then you can have 9,500,000 new jobs created, and the unemployment rate could stay at 9.7%.